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Prediction for CME (2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-23T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29736/-1
CME Note: Partial halo to the NW following the front of the earlier 2024-03-23T01:25Z CME, with a faint shock front portion seen to SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2024-03-22T18:23Z to 2024-03-23T03:23Z, after which the end of this event is seen for a few frames before exiting the field of view. A possible source could be the slower developing dimming to the SSW of Active Region 3614 (N25E07) following the deep northern dimming to the NE of this Active Region. Alternative source could be the concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:25Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by significant sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, eventually reaching 33nT. There is a corresponding jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T12:30Z (-5.58h, +5.58h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): +5.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35

initial CME speed: 1572.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-03-23T03:50Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 20.82 hour(s)
Difference: 1.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-03-23T17:21Z

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